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Thursday, May 3, 2007

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inactiveTopic Thursday, May 3, 2007
started 5/3/2007; 9:24:11 AM - last post 5/5/2007; 6:02:05 PM
Doc Searls - Thursday, May 3, 2007  blueArrow
5/3/2007; 1:24:11 PM (reads: 4990, responses: 9)
Found 
 Where is Phil Hughes?
 He provides a number of answers.
 Here's a more personal one. Phil is the guy who got me back into full-time journalism after decades away from it, and for that I'll always be grateful.
 And while I'm happy for all he's doing for Nicagagua (and geekery, and much more), I miss seeing him stateside. Back when both Phil and Linux Journal made its home in Seattle I traveled up there frequenly and enjoyed every minute of it.
 Working for LJ is still as fun as it ever was, but there's only one fyl.
 Gotta add Nicaragua to the itinerary.
 Perhaps a ProjectVRM retreat?
 
News about news 
 The Future of Multi-Media Digital News and Cultural Networks features many of the folks at UCSB and beyond who have been thinking about the titled issue for a long time, plus fellow travelers like JD Lasica. I'll be there. Look forward to seeing other locals (and visitors) there too.
 
Get a robot to blog for you 
 Hi, Bloggy.
 
Progress 
 One post at a time.
 [Later...] David Wallace points out that the above link goes to a login page. I don't remember what the original post was, so the context is lost. But I'm leaving the post up, just in case something starts to make sense. Not counting on it, though.
 
Under the hipdar 
 According to this, I'm not going to all the "ten hottest conferences in tech".
 Yet I'm making more conference progress than ever — at events that don't make the list. These include the ones over on the left there, plus a few more.
 It's interesting to actually Get Stuff Done, rather than the usual.
 Here's one key: small groups. Another: purpose-driven.
 Bonus link. Another.
 
The >$128,000 question 
 The biggest why-opener in our 4-day visit to England was the brutal exchange rate. We seem to have chosen a bad time to visit, with the dollar worth less than half a pound. London is expensive to begin with, but ... jeez. Even if you put a $ instead of a £ sign in front of the prices, they looked high. A little bottle of water cost $5. A lousy lunch at a faux fifties hamburger joint inside Harrod's came to more than $100.
 As I look toward more international travel in the next year, the prospect of a tanking dollar is an unfun prospect.
 The big question is: why? Not that I can do anything about it. Just, y'know. Wondering.
 
Catching up 
 I'm back home. The trip was long, but had its fun parts. Watch here for some remarkable pictures from aloft of the U.K. Greenland and parts of Canada and The West.
 Meanwhile, I have many errands to run and stuff to catch up on. If you're among the many waiting for me to get back with you, stay tuned.
 

discuss

John - Re: Thursday, May 3, 2007  blueArrow
5/3/2007; 7:10:31 PM (reads: 736, responses: 2)
You mean why is the dollar tanking? Spectacular and obviously-frivolous deficit spending causes devaluation. Buy dollar futures if you think the Republicans will lose the next presidential election.

Why is a burger lunch a hundred bucks and a bottle of water $5? Because for some reason, every time you come to London you stay in SW3 - Kensington and Knightsbridge - the most expensive place you can possibly pick in a city that's not the cheapest to begin with.

Feel free to ask for better London suggestions next time :) Try Hoxton, maybe. There's several hotels to choose from around the City Road/Shoreditch High Street area, it's where almost all London's tech companies live and the local shop prices don't have a "tourist tax" of 100-200%. Plus it's walking distance to Brick Lane.

discuss

Justin - Re:The >$128,000 question  blueArrow
5/3/2007; 8:03:22 PM (reads: 731, responses: 0)
If you think that's sucky you should look at buying software here in the UK, Adobe CS3 (Master) for instance, They have pretty much done as you said and swapped the currency symbols only in this case taken the US dollar price and put a pound sign before it... Kerching says Adobe, ouch says the brit as he pulls up his pants after being royally screwed.

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Mike Warot - Re: Thursday, May 3, 2007  blueArrow
5/3/2007; 11:15:30 PM (reads: 761, responses: 0)
The Dollar is tanking because of Viet Nam, and the decoupling of the Dollar from the Gold Standard that resulted as implemented by Nixon. The Regan deregulation further curtailed the regulation activities which at least try to maintain a link between our currency and real money.

Fast forward to a marketplace with almost no regulation, multi-trillion dollar "hedge funds" AKA Ponzi Schemes with no accountability and you can see a disaster in the making.

On top of this add the "free trade" movement to offshore all of our manufacturing capabilities, as started in the 1980s. This has now resulted in burger flipping being reclassified as "manufacturing" to help cook the books.

The song says "We won't get fooled again"... we obviously didn't learn the lessons of Viet Nam... they all died in vain, as our all our troops in Iraq, along with the 650,000 civilians we've killed along the way.

We didn't learn when a 5% disruption of world oil supply caused the price to triple in the OPEC embargo in the early 70's... so we now can't even run our civilization without flooding the world with our decreasingly valued dollars.

The situation is bleak... we need a president who can look at this huge mess, and honestly face it, and lead us out of it

It's going to get worse... at least in the 1930s we had raw materials, our own oil, and glut of manufacturing capabilities... now we have a system which burns the most valuable form of energy ever found on the planet, to move people to the store to pick up bottles of water from foreign countries.

We're fucked!

We chose this life, we're going to reap what we sowed.

May God forgive us all, and have some mercy.

--Mike--

discuss

Doc Searls - Re: Thursday, May 3, 2007  blueArrow
5/4/2007; 12:32:51 AM (reads: 791, responses: 1)
Thanks.

Deficit spending is a huge contributor to the tanking dollar. Huge foreign debt is another. I am also sure that a failure of confidence in the U.S. economy (as well as the government) is another.

The question I meant to ask, but didn't, had to do with the U.K.'s decision to stay with its own currency. Was that part of it as well?

Unfortunately for this trip the Knightsbridge Green (among the "cheapest" hotels in SW3) was an independent variable -- planned (not by me, though it doesn't matter) months ago. On future trips I'll economize around location as well as other considerations.

Trust me, this is the last time I'll stay there. And not just because of the cost.

discuss

Steven Tulsky - Re: Thursday, May 3, 2007  blueArrow
5/4/2007; 3:42:37 AM (reads: 891, responses: 0)
Hey All,

It's simpler than all that, and less ominous to boot. Our country has had a "weak dollar" policy for some time now, for a couple of intentional reasons:

1) We want to encourage more U.S. exports by making them cheaper to overseas buyers, which will (hopefully) reduce the growth in our trade deficit. When the dollar becomes cheap to foreigners, they are more likely to visit us and leave their Euros in our hotels and restaurants, and perhaps they'll start importing more of our goods as well. Remember, it doesn't do the American economy any good for Americans to spend all their money in Europe, we want the Europeans to spend all of their money over here. The government is not at all unhappy with the weak dollar.

2) We are keeping our interest rates low because we are trying to steer away from the risk of falling into recession (a risk which is heightened by rising oil prices), but the result of this is that international investors would rather hold Sterling which will give them a higher return. When investors sell dollars in order to buy Sterling, the cost of dollars goes down and the cost of the Sterling goes up. UK interest rates are substantially higher than ours right now, causing the Pound exchange rate to be particularly painful.

Finally, the interesting problem with #1 above is that the most important currency to our trade deficit, the Chinese renmimbi, is artificially pegged to the dollar rather than allowed to reflect its real value, which should be much higher. As a result, Chinese goods are still artificially cheap to us so we keep on buying them, aggravating the trade deficit. I'm no fan of this administration, but they have been doing the right thing by pressuring China to let their currency float (which of course they have no intention of doing).

Steve

discuss

Brian Benz - Re: Found  blueArrow
5/4/2007; 5:12:52 AM (reads: 781, responses: 0)
I'd be up for the VRM retreat - And for once my wife would be happy joining me on a geek trip (she's from Nicaragua)........

discuss

Al - Re: Thursday, May 3, 2007  blueArrow
5/4/2007; 1:54:39 PM (reads: 772, responses: 0)
Make that two posts and spreading http://www.folknology.com/blogs/default/2007/05/04/1178283180000.html

discuss

David Wallace - Re: Progress  blueArrow
5/5/2007; 11:50:24 AM (reads: 961, responses: 1)
Doc, Progress, One post at a time, link takes me to myspace and wants me to login...I don't think so!

Context please.

Dave

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Doc Searls - Re: Progress  blueArrow
5/5/2007; 10:02:05 PM (reads: 840, responses: 0)
Aw damn. I've lost the context, and obviously screwed something up with the link. Unfortunately, no time to change it right now.

discuss




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