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Monday, November 14, 2005

Author:   Doc Searls  
Posted: 11/14/2005; 11:15:51 AM
Topic: Monday, November 14, 2005
Msg #: 6180 (top msg in thread)
Prev/Next: 6179/6181
Reads: 6767

Read this site and try not to drool 
 Or try to work at all. Dig The Year of the Coffee Blog. It has now joined CoffeeGeek.com and WholeLatteLove.com as fave places to obsess. I have to go down and make a Peet's espresso, now.
 By the way, I'm seriously thinking of ugrading to an Expobar Brewtus II. Just the look of it turns on a born barista like me.
 
The sunset is from Venus, the Moon is from Mars 
 Great sky show tonight, when Venus shines brightly in West after sunset, and the Moon glides slowly toward fullness past Mars in the East.
 Mars, by the way, is in close approach to the Earth right now, so it's much brighter than normal.
 Also, the Leonid meteor shower is coming up on Thursday night. We may never see another Leonid night like we did back in '01 (when the shower was literal), but it's still the best time of year to go out looking for shooting stars.
 
Podcanomics 101 
 Working Pathways on the Economics of Podcasting: With numbers as small as these, I don¹t see advertisers beating down the doors of podcasters. In the broadcast world, millions of dollars are sunk into spectrum, hardware, and talent. This gives advertisers the upper hand.
 On "Because of: Not "With" in Traditional Media: If there¹s only two nickels to be made, directly, whether self-publishing (weblogs) or via a publishing company (newspaper, recording, book) and all the money is in the "because of". It seems to me the quest is finding the shortest way to "because of".
 It goes on. Working Pathways' Work Better Blog is chock full of provocative stuff by and for people thinking out loud about How To Make (Podcasting, Whatever) Work. Check it out.
 
Oddscasting 
 After agreeing with what I said (here or here or here or here, or some combination of those), Ben Barren posts Paying $30 CPM for Podcast Tracking is Insane. It's colorful and numberful (to say the least) and a fun break from the shitstorm that's been going on around this Whole Thing. One sample:
 Back to the $30. Chemda (the girl) mentioned last week they had 500,000 listeners. Remember they have no advertising. Yet, Their Own Choice. They're not even sure what Adam Curry does or what his business model is. Listen to their other LA episodes this week : Here and here. Times that by 3 cents per listen for the charge audible want for tracking stats and .AA conversion I assume : That equals $15,000 for one episode of Keith and Hurl. Times that by 5 shows per week. $75,000 a week. Lots of vig there. Ill give audible benefit of doubt and say 4 weeks per month. That's $300,000 or $3.6 million per year for K+TG to get stats on listeners. (and remember you can listen to podcasts on your PC and not enter any user details so im not sure how audible really think they will get comprehensive user details) Im sure you can run your discount factors, non-active subscriber numbers, monthly churn rates, % of those that dont listen to the whole podcast - to get to a total KeithandtheGirl monthly usage number, but if you want my opinion, Audible just spent $35K on a Wordcast Sponsorship for the "Portable Media Expo" to build "negative brand equity" as they used to say in my DDB ad agency days.
 I can't follow it either, but trying to do that is a lot more fun than reading an Audible press release with blahnguage like this:
 "We are very proud of this latest Audible innovation," said Donald Katz, chairman and CEO of Audible, Inc. "What we are doing with AudibleWordcast is packaging some of the best technologies, techniques, and customer support systems that have enabled us to build audible.com and its delivery platform and making them available to audio creators of all sizes. Producers can now use these tools to create multiple revenue streams and control their costs and risk at the same time."
 Your Smileage May Vary, of course.
 Bonus linkage to MIke Arrington, Rex Hammock, Jeff Jarvis, Greg Yardley, Brad Gibson, Mitch Ratcliffe and Mitch Ratcliffe — wherein he says,
 I've said repeatedly, Audible is trying to open new business models, not wipe out MP3. As for proprietary formats, I won't go, again, into how far I think Audible can go with some positive feedback instead of reactionary lashing out.
 
He died bringing truth to power 
 Peter Drucker (who died last Friday) in a January 2000 interview with the Wall Street Journal:
 WSJ: You also said the scarcity axiom was becoming obsolete. Do you mean the idea that things have value only insofar as they're limited in supply?
 Dr. Drucker: What I mean is that the scarcity axiom does not pertain to information. Let me give you two examples, one where they understand this and one where they don't. I will not give company names.
 There is the company that gave you the map and driving direction you used to get from the Los Angeles airport to my home; you go to the Internet, and they don't charge a penny. They make their money from advertising, which you have to look at to get these directions. They understand that the scarcity axiom does not apply to information because they can keep giving away information and receive more revenue in another way.
 On the other hand, there is a major newspaper, one I am very fond of, which believes in selling subscriptions to the online edition of the paper, which is a total misunderstanding. It should be given away to create a larger subscription base.
 This first company understands information, the second one has yet to learn.
 Going on six years later, you wonder, Will they ever?




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