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Tuesday, November 2, 2004

Author:   Doc Searls  
Posted: 11/2/2004; 4:56:51 AM
Topic: Tuesday, November 2, 2004
Msg #: 5123 (top msg in thread)
Prev/Next: 5122/5124
Reads: 5715

The New Florida 
 It's coming down to Ohio. Bush leads there by 100k votes with 87% counted. On CNN James Carville is calling the whole thing for Bush. "No sense in spinning people at one o'clock in the morning." David Gergen: "This will be devastating for all the young people who worked so hard..." On the other hand, Josh Marshal says,
 One thing that does seem very clear tonight -- at least if what I'm hearing from the exits is true -- is that the much-ballyhooed youth vote simply did not show up. Simple as that. Kos agrees.
 Also clear as day: to the heartland, Bush is Reagan. The vast red states are more than metaphor. They're the country. The intellectuals — including, I would guess, most of us here in the blogosphere — are the fringe. We're a minority that did about the best it could do, considering. We tried to "take back" the country. But it wasn't there for the taking.
 Bush is ahead by over three million votes overall, and a majority: 51-48%. Kerry, if he wins the electoral vote, will be mandateless, to say the least. Jeff Greenfiled on CNN: The values part of this election broke for the President. Yep. Stick a fork in the donkey. It's done.
 
One you get off the wall 
 The kid on the way to bed: "What's an electrical vote?"
 
Faster than television 
 The way I read the C-SPAN map right now (use the mouse-over... very cool), it's 294 for Kerry and 244 for Bush, maybe 283-255 if Washington goes for Bush. Of course, it's still early. And probably wrong, which is how it goes in this business that isn't...
 My kid just pointed out that I forgot Alaska and Hawaii and my math is off. I'd correct the math if I didn't have to get him to bed.
 
Almost live, from the CandyAss Building 
 A little while ago Aaron Brown reverently recited a nice long, thoughtful and patriotic quote (this pledge, I just found out, by cleverly visiting his blog) by Jeff Jarvis. You'd think Aaron was sourcing Edward R. Murrow or Walter Lippman. Which, in modern terms, I suppose he was.
 The last time I was in New York, Britt and I visited with Jeff in his place of employment, which is located in what my kid misheard me as labeling "The CandyAss Building." Hence the headline.
 
You can ignore the ads 
 So much better to watch the TV on Web. ABC... CNN...
 I watched The Daily Show for several days before deciding that 15 minutes of somewhat funny bits weren't worth 15 minutes of brutally loud and obnoxious advertising. I know I can TiVo the show, but in the morning when I'd watch I'm already listening to podcasts so... I fail to participate in one more ritual of what a good friend from Long Island calls popula culcha.
 Of course, some of The Daily Show's bits are online too, but they're in Windows Media, which I have trouble watching, so fuggit.
 [Seconds later...] Already somebody's telling me Comedy Central is the channel to watch, if you're gonna watch TV. So... we'll see. 10pm, it says. Pacific? Eastern? I guess Eastern, since I'm watching satellite TV here. We even get the locals on satellite. KEYT/3, our local station here in Santa Barbara, is about two miles away. I'm looking at their building right now, on a hill across town. Their transmitter is about 20 miles down the ridge on Broadcast Peak. We're terrain shadowed from the signal, which looks like crap here. So we get it on satellite, via a 50,000 mile round trip. Still, the picture looks better on KABC/7, via satellite from Los Angeles, so that's the ABC I'm watching instead. (I'm guessing the KEYT signal is captured off the air then bounced off the bird, while KABC's is uploaded by a more direct route.) Like it matters.
 Man, what a drug the tube is. I feel like such a potato, sitting here, even though I have the sound down and I'm reading blogs on the Web.
 Just found the mouse-over map at CSPAN. Early returns favor Bush in all the battleground states other than Pennsylvania. My bet (below) stands. OK, gotta go pick up the kid. Back to Reality.
 
Britt's but 
 Britt Blaser expects a Kerry victory. My reasoning was that Bush wouldn't earn more votes than he got last time and that his opposition is highly energized. But he adds,
 The big losers in this election will be both parties, for this is the sunset of broadcast politics, expensive pollsters and the two parties as we know them. Their unmitigated cynicism, reach, grasp and greed doom them and their most extreme supporters to the margins of the political scene, like the smokers shivering outside a New York club that once welcomed them.
 
ABZD WXYC 
 That was the t-shirt copy for WXYC, the student station at the University of North Carolina in Chapel Hill, long before it became the first radio station on the Web. Always loved that shirt.
 Anyway, WXYC's 10th anniversary on the air is November 7. The celebration details are here.
 
Dept. of requests 
 Looking for help with Podcasting on Linux.
 
Knowwhat 
 Wikipedia on the Electoral College.
 Right now the Electoral Vote Predictor says Kerry 262, Bush 261. (Beware; it's a slow load.) With 270 needed to win. (Noon, Pacific, on Election Day.) More about the site at Electoral geek supreme, by Andrew Leonard, in Salon. The father of Electoral Vote Predictor is none other than Andrew Tanenbaum, father of Minix.
 I'm voting Kerry, but betting Bush, for what it's worth.
 
Watch out 
 A guy I know through SBAU is selling Moondoggie laptops. Very tough and with a transparent display that (the site says) actually improves in sunlight. Also, in an unrelated venture, SBeeswax candles.
 
Nuvoblog du jour 
 Vision Matters. Today's post: Imagine Trust in the Virtual World.
 
Last Bit Campaigning 
 Now that Wired News has said it, I'll also say that my pal Leonard Lin has been the source of info about (and a prime hacker behind) Internet Vets for Truth. More about the site's crew here.
 Some of you might recall the brilliant job Leonard did of both recording and posting Lawrence Lessig's free culture speech at OSCon 2002. Note to podcasters present and future: Leonard did the recording, quietly, over the microphone on his laptop. Not perfect, but not bad, considering.
 
Taking a pulse of The Live Web 
 Technorati is counting vote links. Props to Kevin and Tantek.
 Also Hacking Politics: Technology's Tidal Wave, by Micah Sifry at Personal Democracy Forum.
 
Erection Day 
 A few quotes...
 Everything about U.S. foreign policy right now is increating the power of people who hate us. This doesn't strike me as a very smart thing to do, even if you suport U.S. imperial objectives. — Stan Goff, 24-year U.S. Army veteran, Special Forces member, sniper with the Delta Force antiterrorism unit, teacher of military science at West Point, veteran of Grenada, Somalia, Panama, Haiti and Vietnam. From Homeland Insecurity (.pdf), in the November 2004 issue of The Sun.
 Tell no lies and claim no easy victoriesAmilcar Cabral
 No nation can preserve its freedom in the midst of continual warfare. — James Madison
 Terrorism is the war of the poor, and war is the terrorism of the rich. — Peter Ustinov
 The best way to give a lie the force of truth is to soak it in innocent blood.Hal Crowther
 
Blogging 4 Bux 
 Mitch Ratcliffe does some serial thinking out loud on the subject of blogging for money. Good read. Great fodder for Saturday. the sections:
 
  1. Paying bloggers: Big bucks or big blowout ahead
  2. Paying bloggers: Ethics vs. economics
  3. Paying b loggers: Participating in the conversation
 Bonus link: Blogvertising is probably a zero-sum game, by The Head Lemur.


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