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Sunday, October 26, 2003
Watching fire through fire 
| | One amazing side effect of living west of the biggest firestorm in modern Southern California history is watching the sun set through a haze of smoke — and seeing the sources of the largest solar flares in recent months, if not years: a pair of sunspots so large and dark that they are visible with the naked eye. |
| | Above are three views, at three different exposure levels, through a Sony DCR-PC120bt camcorder, which shoots 1.55megapixel stills. |
| | The Solar Terrestrial Dispatch page explains what's going on. Since the page doesn't remain the same, and old bulletins appear to scroll to oblivion, I'll copy and paste the current bulletin here: |
| | Latest Geomagnetic and Auroral Activity Conditions |
| | Updated: 21:15 UTC 26 October (4:10 pm EDT, 26 October): |
| | ** TWO MAJOR X-CLASS FLARES (see below) ** |
| | A mild interplanetary shock was detected by the ACE spacecraft at 18:33 UTC. The shock reached the Earth at 19:07 UTC (2:07 pm EDT). The solar wind interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) appears to be shifting toward a gradual southward orientation, as is evidenced by a declining Bz component. If this trend continues, geomagnetic and auroral activity should begin intensifying within the next several hours, primarily over the higher latitude regions but probably with some activity visible from the middle latitudes as well. European observers should watch conditions closely. |
| | A second SIGNIFICANT X-class solar flare has erupted, this time from Region 484. This event is a confirmed proton solar flare. Energetic protons at greater than 10 MeV are increasing in density at the present time. X-rays are currently above X-class levels and are nearing a plateau. |
| | The Earth has now been bracketed by two strong solar flares and two associated coronal mass ejections. Although further analysis is required, it appears certain that a respectable space weather storm could develop in the next few days from these two events. Details will become available in several hours. |
| | A significant major class X1.3 solar flare has occurred in Region 486. This is a suspected proton flare. X-rays remained above X-class levels for 55 minutes. High velocity type-II radio sweep frequency event observed (estimated shock velocity 1300 km/sec). Analysis will be made available in several hours. |
| | Major solar flare activity is expected over the next 72 hours from Regions 486 and/or 484. Both of these spot complexes are still complex enough to support the production of very energetic solar activity. |
Prophesies Fulfilled
| | Auroras in Arizona. Which means they may have been visible here. I went looking last night and the night before, but didn't see anything. But the solar wind did get a bit strong from the last coronal ejection event, so there must have been plenty of auroras to see in the middle lattitudes. Right now there is a "major x-class flare alert" that should yield more auroras in the same latitudes over the next few days: |
| | Geomagnetic and auroral activity are expected to continue mildly unsettled to active over the next 24 hours, with a chance for periods of minor storm activity. A significant solar flare is currently in-progress that could have a large Earth-bound impact early next week. Additional analysis is required to determine whether this event contains an Earthward directed component. That will require several hours. |
Smoke signals
| | But we're in Santa Barbara, more than 100 miles west of those fires. Is it possible we're still smelling the smoke from them? Or is it from something closer we can't see? |
| | Our local news station is off the air, I guess because it's early Sunday Morning. So is its parent TV station. The only news station we get is KNX/1070 out of Los Angeles, which is all over the San Bernardino fire case. None of the L.A. TV stations have anything, including KNX-TV; although they do have this much on the Web. |
| | This is a scary place to live during fire season, especially when the Santa Ana winds push down toward the towns from the mountains. The Sycamore Canyon Fire, which burned more than 300 homes here, stopped about ten houses up our street. See this picture here? Our house is located about half a mile to the right of it. Also to the left of the perimiter of the red area on this map here. |
| | Interesting, isn't it, that most of the useful information I've been able to get this morning comes from the Web. And not a whole lot from news organizations in the mainstream media, other than the L.A. Times. |
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